Bucks Diary

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Here's how the Bucks performed relative to the rest of the Association


I've come up with a new postgame statistical analysis for readers, based upon the principle logic of the Win Score metrics and the similar baseball metrics -- wins are produced when players performances are above average. That's what I'm measuring in each Bucks game. Let me quick explain it and then you can look at the chart below.

First Offensive RPI. What it is, simply, is a comparison of each Bucks players "Win Score" performance against the average performance of the opponents preceding competition. That average comparison is then magnified according to the player's minutes. So, if the Celtics usually allow power forwards to record Win Scores of 11.2, and Charlie Bell records a 9.3, he is deemed to have a relative Win Score of -1.9, and if he played 15% of the minutes, then -1.9 is multipled by 0.15, and that is his resulting RPI.

Defensive RPI is just the opposite. If Kevin Garnett records a 17+ Win Score, as he did last night, and he is only averaging 12.3, as he was, that means the Bucks defense allowed him +4.7 Win Score points... a dismal effort. Multiply that by Garnett's minutes and you have the Bucks Defensive RPI relative to Garnett. And it wasn't pretty. By RPI the defense stunk last night, and the offense wasn't much better.

Click here to read the RPI Game Ratings chart. Its pretty simple and self-explanatory.

I will have more to say about what it means later. I have to go to bed now. But please notice the poor defense, the outstanding performances by Moute and Jefferson, and the continuing struggles were having with our 8-12 bench players.

Footnote: Remember two quick things when your reading the RPI chart, especially the defensive portion. The last number in the column for the Celtic players is a defensive rating for the Bucks. Not for the Celtic himself. So negative is bad for the Bucks. Also, when you see the magnitude of the negative defensive RPIs attached to Pierce and Garnett don't excuse them by thinking "Well, that's Pierce and Garnett". NO. That unacceptably high number represents the EXTRA damage they did to the Bucks that they WERE NOT able to do against other teams so far this season. The opponent players are essentially irrelevant when it comes to Defensive RPI. Its all a comparison against THE REST OF THE ASSOCIATION. And by that standard the Bucks defense failed mightily last night.

1 Comments:

At November 8, 2008 at 4:06 PM, Anonymous paulpressey25 said...

Ty, I'm a simple man and was just getting down your TWC boxscores. I'm sure those were a pain to do, but I really, really liked them.

I'm not sure I understand the new system.

 

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