Bucks Diary

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Positional Win Score average breakdown for every NBA team so far

82games.com recently posted their first statistics of the new season (please patronize them when you can; I depend heavily on their outstanding statistical work). Since I had noticed earlier that the NBA average Win Score has dropped early-on this season, I used the 82games information to determine precisely where the Win Score drop has occured. I found out.

Production down everywhere except power forward

My chart shows that Win Score production is down at every position except power forward, where it is actually up slightly. Otherwise, PG production is down by 1.4 Win Score points per 48 (6.9 to 5.5); SG production is down by 1.8 Win Score points per 48 (6.4 to 4.8); SF production is down 1.5 Win Score points per 48; and, C production is down by 0.7 Win Score points per 48 (12.3 to 11.6). I will continue to track these numbers periodically to determine whether this downturn is a natural early season happening, or a legitimate downward trend.

Thank God for the SkilesEffect

Even compared to the lower Win Score production averages this season, the Milwaukee Bucks are getting below average offense from 4 of the 5 positions on the court. Ironically, point guard is the one position where the Bucks are currently outperforming the NBA average. Almost all of that is due to the work of Ramon Sessions, and, to a lesser extent, Tyronn Lue. Luke Ridnour has made his impact with Defensive Win Score numbers, not with offense.

PVOA power ranking coming soon

I've begun the calculations needed to complete a "Point Value over Average" power ranking of the 30 teams in the National Basketball Association. I'm interested to see what they reveal.

PVOA, as you recall, is a system of performance measurement modeled after the "DVOA" measurements done by FootballOutsiders.com. It is a "Per Possession" metric that compares how each team did versus how the rest of the Association would have done given the same circumstances.

Its a lot of work, but the results are usually interesting. Last season it had the Celtics and Lakers pegged for the Finals long before most pundits thought either team was for real.


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