Bucks Diary

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Rookie Win Contribution Watch: Michael Beasley disappointing, Brook Lopez surprising

Last season I took all kinds of guff about my praise for Kevin Love of UCLA, and my hope that he would one day be a Milwaukee Buck. Now even Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has come around to the idea that Timberwolves C/PF Kevin Love will be a very productive NBA player. And, amongst this year's lottery class, that's saying a lot. Thus far he is amongst the very few 2008 lottery picks (and Greg Oden) who has made a positive impact on his team.

Remember, +0.000 represents the Win Contribution of the average NBA player. Anything above that represents a player's positive impact on his team's chances for victory, anything below represents a player's negative impact on his team's chances for victory.

By that standard, thus far Brook Lopez, center for the New Jersey Nets, is having the best start of all the lottery rookies, providing the Nets with an exceptional +0.632 Win Contribution. Kevin Love, whom I predicted would be a productive player rather than "Big Country" Reeves, is currently right on his heels at +0.545.

Jason Thompson and the injured Greg Oden have each made slightly positive Win Contributions, and the rest of the lottery ranges from average (OJ Mayo and Russell Westbrook), to well below average.

Michael Beasley, the pot smoker, has been a huge disappointment so far. He hasn't produced like his college numbers suggested, and he plays absolutely zero defense. If he doesn't get his act together, I will have to adjust some of my projection methods. I have an idea how to do it. I will return to the topic in the future and will explain.

In the next couple of days, I will cherry pick some other interesting rookies to see how they are fairing.


At November 5, 2008 at 8:21 AM, Anonymous OJ Mayo said...

OJ Mayo for Rookie of the Year!

At November 5, 2008 at 6:39 PM, Anonymous Blake said...

When projecting rookies stats you can't always go by their college production, you have to take size, work ethic and how smart they are on the court.

I'm a big UNC fan and Hansbrough to my belief has great production, but his size is lacking and his intelligence on the court could be improved. But his work ethic is amazing, I think he'll surprise some people.

At November 8, 2008 at 4:02 PM, Anonymous paulpressey25 said...

I was really hoping we'd pick Brook Lopez rather than Potsie.

Lopez fell much too far much in this draft because of the fact he and his goofy brother had Michael Jackson posters on their dorm wall.....

At November 20, 2008 at 6:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

beasley the dissapointing one out of the "big 3" of the draft class?

Last time i looked Heat were doing better than bulls and grizzlies.
I know i would rather have a championship ring over any rookie of the year award.


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