Bucks Diary

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The 2009 NBA Draft looks well stocked

Draftexpress.com's 2008 "NBA mock draft" list was topped by players whose productive histories left something to be desired (Bayless, Gordon, that foreign guy the Knicks took, etc). Remember how I bitched and bitched about that last season? Well, the 2009 mock list is looking quite different.

Admittedly, I've never heard of most of these guys (I stick to the Association for the most part), but, like a low level human resources clerk, I scanned their resumes. For the most part, I was greatly impressed. The top guys seem to have WS40's that bode well for their professional potential (Except the stiff looking freshman center from Ohio State they have ranked number two. What the hell's he doing at number two?! He barely plays for Ohio State, and he doesn't produce at all when he does play. Yeah, size is a rare commodity, but this guy looks like the second coming of that Jamal Sampson guy, remember him? The Bucks had him on their roster for a season, just because he was tall and athletic. But he couldn't play a lick, and they finally cut him loose, and he just kicked around the NBA, doing nothing but collecting W2s, for about 4 seasons).

At this point, though, I'm a bit gun shy about recommending anyone. I was burned badly by Michael Beasley's gaudy collegiate numbers. Once he got to the professional ranks, he turned from a power forward into a contact-shy shooting guard. That's happened three times in a row now (Adam Morrison, Kevin Durant, Beasley).

Kevin Love, though, my big white hope from last season's draft, is actually not doing badly at all. I'm sure I'd get an argument from my brother the Twolves season ticketholder, because Love's shooting percentages are brutal. But he rebounds like Wes Unseld, and he's a terrific defender, especially at the center spot. Thus he has used his secondary statistics to pull himself back into positive Win Contribution territory. If the Wolves played him at center more, where his Marginal Win Score is +2.5, instead of power forward, where his Marginal Win Score is +0.6, he be an even bigger contributor. But McHale doesn't know what the hell he's doing.

Curry and Hansborough scare me

The two guys whose great production numbers both interest and scare me are shooting guard Stephon Curry of Davidson and power forward Tyler Hansborough of North Carolina. Both are wildly productive. And consistently productive. But, goddamn it, both HAVE TO BE marked "Caveat Emptor".

Both have the sort of undersized frames that should scream at me "Production Drop Coming!!" after Morrison, Durant, and Beasley. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, something's wrong with my system...

But man, both are SO enticing. Their numbers are huge. And Curry's got the blood lines. But, thankfully, there are plenty of other guys with huge numbers as well. I'll go into detail on them in another post.

New Scouting System

This season, I've detected something. Last season, before the NCAA tournament, I figured every tournament team's offensive and defensive Win Scores. This season, I've noticed that players who come from teams that had very good team defensive Win Scores (Moute, Mayo, Mario Chalmers, Love, Afflalo) tend to have excellent "Counterpart Opponent" Win Scores in the pros.

So now I'm going to use the same techniques I use to estimate the defensive Win Scores of past Milwaukee Buck players to estimate the defensive Win Scores of potential future Milwaukee Buck prospects. I'll let you see the results when I am finished.


At December 17, 2008 at 2:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"This season, I've noticed that players who come from teams that had very good team defensive Win Scores (Moute, Mayo, Mario Chalmers, Love, Afflalo) tend to have excellent "Counterpart Opponent" Win Scores in the pros."

So what is a Counterpart Opponet??

At December 17, 2008 at 6:18 PM, Blogger TCW said...

Oh, sorry. I have a habit of using terms and then assuming everyone understands. I apologize.

"Counterpart Opponent" is the man the player is assigned to cover... or, for my purposes, the player who is playing the same position at the same time. Its a term of art coined by 82games.com.

Let me explain why its an important term in my world. Unlike the others who abide by the "Win Score" philosophy, I do not think wins are created by players who produce more than the NBA positional average... I believe wins are created by players who produce more Win Score points than their opponents.

I developed this philosophy after studying last season's Boston Celtics. If you took their entire team Win Score average and compared it against last season's NBA average, and then punched that "per player" average Win Score into Professor Berri's Wins Produced formula... you get NOWHERE NEAR 66 WINS.

Now, instead, if you compare the Celtics Win Score production against the Win Score production they allowed their Opponents to produce, and you divided that by two, and punched it into PB's formula, you get EXACTLY 66 WINS.

Thus, I believe... and I think I'm alone in this belief, but who cares... I believe defense matters. I believe YOU SET YOUR OWN Win Score average by the amount of Win Score you allow your opponent.

In fact, look at this season's Milwaukee Bucks. They prove my thesis. If you look simply at their Win Score average and compare it against the NBA average, the Bucks should have something like 6 wins. Their offense is brutal.

But, if you factor in the Bucks defense, which has produced about 16 "defensive half wins", add the two, and divide by two, you get 11 wins (its actually like 10.4).

That is my "Total Win Contribution" theory in a nutshell.

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