The 2009 NBA Draft looks well stocked
Draftexpress.com's 2008 "NBA mock draft" list was topped by players whose productive histories left something to be desired (Bayless, Gordon, that foreign guy the Knicks took, etc). Remember how I bitched and bitched about that last season? Well, the 2009 mock list is looking quite different.
Admittedly, I've never heard of most of these guys (I stick to the Association for the most part), but, like a low level human resources clerk, I scanned their resumes. For the most part, I was greatly impressed. The top guys seem to have WS40's that bode well for their professional potential (Except the stiff looking freshman center from Ohio State they have ranked number two. What the hell's he doing at number two?! He barely plays for Ohio State, and he doesn't produce at all when he does play. Yeah, size is a rare commodity, but this guy looks like the second coming of that Jamal Sampson guy, remember him? The Bucks had him on their roster for a season, just because he was tall and athletic. But he couldn't play a lick, and they finally cut him loose, and he just kicked around the NBA, doing nothing but collecting W2s, for about 4 seasons).
At this point, though, I'm a bit gun shy about recommending anyone. I was burned badly by Michael Beasley's gaudy collegiate numbers. Once he got to the professional ranks, he turned from a power forward into a contact-shy shooting guard. That's happened three times in a row now (Adam Morrison, Kevin Durant, Beasley).
Kevin Love, though, my big white hope from last season's draft, is actually not doing badly at all. I'm sure I'd get an argument from my brother the Twolves season ticketholder, because Love's shooting percentages are brutal. But he rebounds like Wes Unseld, and he's a terrific defender, especially at the center spot. Thus he has used his secondary statistics to pull himself back into positive Win Contribution territory. If the Wolves played him at center more, where his Marginal Win Score is +2.5, instead of power forward, where his Marginal Win Score is +0.6, he be an even bigger contributor. But McHale doesn't know what the hell he's doing.
Curry and Hansborough scare me
The two guys whose great production numbers both interest and scare me are shooting guard Stephon Curry of Davidson and power forward Tyler Hansborough of North Carolina. Both are wildly productive. And consistently productive. But, goddamn it, both HAVE TO BE marked "Caveat Emptor".
Both have the sort of undersized frames that should scream at me "Production Drop Coming!!" after Morrison, Durant, and Beasley. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, something's wrong with my system...
But man, both are SO enticing. Their numbers are huge. And Curry's got the blood lines. But, thankfully, there are plenty of other guys with huge numbers as well. I'll go into detail on them in another post.
New Scouting System
This season, I've detected something. Last season, before the NCAA tournament, I figured every tournament team's offensive and defensive Win Scores. This season, I've noticed that players who come from teams that had very good team defensive Win Scores (Moute, Mayo, Mario Chalmers, Love, Afflalo) tend to have excellent "Counterpart Opponent" Win Scores in the pros.
So now I'm going to use the same techniques I use to estimate the defensive Win Scores of past Milwaukee Buck players to estimate the defensive Win Scores of potential future Milwaukee Buck prospects. I'll let you see the results when I am finished.