Bucks Diary

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Bucks are improving: Updated Comprehensive Milwaukee Bucks statistical review

Despite the beat down in Los Angeles on Sunday night, the Bucks have improved in the last seven days.

Notes from the Updated Review

1. As you can see, "Total Win Contribution" is a more accurate forecaster of Wins Produced than "Wins Above Average"... that's because I use a quick and dirty method to calculate approximate Wins Above Average, but use the full mathematical formula to calculate wins produced based on TWC.

2. The Bucks have shown the value of the old cliche "addition by subtraction". Simply sitting Charlie Bell and replacing his minutes with minutes for Michael Redd improved the team's fortunes, even though Michael Redd's play since returning has dipped severely. That's obviously because Bell's play was so atrocious, all Redd had to do was produce average level play to constitute a huge improvement. Error Message: Actually, that is not true yet! If you look at the change in TWC over the last seven days, the depreciation in Michael Redd's play has so far precisely negated any "improvement by subtraction" dividend the team should get by sitting Charlie Bell. But, if Redd can stabilize, that will change.

3. Dan Gadzuric's improved play has also helped the team. In my last review, his play was below replacement level. It is now above replacement level.

4. Andrew Bogut's play is regressing back toward his career numbers, as I guess I secretly feared it might. Hopefully, though, he can level off right where he's at.

5. On the other hand, Joe Alexander's play has improved, although it still languishes below replacement level... but not quite as far below, which is good.

6. RJ's play has gotten back to average, which -- if you take a look at my seven day comparative column -- provided a huge boost to the Milwaukee Bucks. Remember, +0.000 represents average, and average player's are actually pretty good. Just remember what we had last season at the 3 and I think you'd agree with that statement.

7. If you notice, at the moment the team's most valuable player is Ramon Sessions, and he doesn't even start.


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