Hollinger has Bucks at 37 wins... and in the playoffs!
I found another win expectation model, and its better news for the Bucks. Hollinger at ESPN.com has them winning 37 games and then sneaking into the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference, where I presume he has them getting destroyed by Prince James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
I'm not 100% sold on his methodology however. For instance he has Cleveland as a prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Championship, with the Lakers third. I definitely think Cleveland is in the mix with Boston and Los Angeles for the title, but I don't think Cleveland is head and shoulders above the other two. Maybe Hollinger's trying to account for a tougher Western Conference playoff slate for the Lakers, but that was supposed to be the case last season and never materialized.