Bucks Diary

Monday, December 01, 2008

How are the NBA's 20 most valuable players performing this season?

Spurred on by an excellent post on the WoW Journal, a post that mentioned the decline in production of Boston Celtics PF/C Kevin Garnett, I decided to investigate the productivity this season of each of the player's I designated the 20 most valuable NBA players last season (I determined the list according to the highest "Total Win Contributions").

Notes on the List

1. The two largest dropoffs in production from last season's 20 most valuable players have been Manu Ginobli (-0.420) and Deron Williams (-0.419). Ginobli's dropoff has been due mainly to his lack of court time because of injury. Williams has also been injured, but he hasn't been nearly as productive when he has played. His Marginal Win Score per 48 is just barely above average.

2. On the other hand, the biggest uptick in productivity belongs to old man Jason Kidd (+0.182), who is quietly having a superlative season, and Amare Stoudamire (+0.146), who is also having an MVP type season down in the desert.

3. When you talk about the Lakers success, don't forget to mention the play of Lamar Odom. He's been demoted to sixth man, but despite that he's making an even greater Win Contribution to the Lakers this season (+0.108). Its no wonder the Lakers reserve unit has a higher "+/-" per minute than any team's starting unit.

4. The WoW Journal was right. Kevin Garnett's productivity is way off this season, but the same is true for Paul Pierce. Together the two are responsible for a decline of -0.535, a lot of which has been made up by Ray Allen's improved contribution. I did a post on that subject a couple of days ago.

5. Earlier this season I was ragging on Chris Bosh of Toronto because he was actually making a negative Win Contribution. He's turned that around completely, mainly because he's moved back to the center position. When manning the power forward position, Bosh actually has a negative Marginal Win Score per 48. At the center position, his MWS/48 is very positive, accounting for his complete turnaround.

6. Don't blame Antawn Jamison for the mess in Washington. His Win Contribution is up substantially this season, and it was excellent last season. He is not only producing quite well, he's logging a ton of minutes. I wonder how long he can hold up.


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