Bucks Diary

Friday, December 19, 2008

Kareem aint walkin through that door, Oscar aint walkin through that door...

I have a Kareem Abdul Jabbar mock 1970 Milwaukee Bucks road jersey shirt in my drawer. I have an Oscar Robertson mock 1974 Milwaukee Bucks road jersey (in tatters) in my drawer. But the odds of the Milwaukee Bucks ever acquiring another Kareem Abdul Jabbar, or the odds of the Milwaukee Bucks ever acquiring another Oscar Robertson again are infinitesimal.

The fact is if the Bucks are ever to rise again, they must do it the Moneyball way. They have to find the anomalies in the market and exploit them. In other words, they must act like the two venture capitalists in the book "Super Crunchers".

These two guys went into a meeting with a couple of Hollywood big shots to pitch a proven method they had to determine whether a script would produce a profitable movie. (It was based upon regression analysis of certain elements contained within each script... I forget now what the specific elements were, but it was things you wouldn't normally consider: like the title, or the plot line... things like that... quite fascinating actually).

Think about it. This would be worth BILLIONS to the Hollywood industry. If they knew BEFORE HAND whether a movie would be profitable? That should be candy in their ears. It wasn't! Even though these two guys proved their case to these two studio CEOs, the CEOs basically threw them out the door. They told them "That isn't how we do things in Hollywood!".

Well, the venture capitalists left the meeting laughing. The author of Super Crunchers, who is a Professor of Law at Yale University wondered what in the fuck these guys were laughing about, after all their proposal just gut shoved up their asses!

Well, the venture capitalists just smiled and explained to the naive prof, "This is how we make our millions. We find silly captains of industry who cling to their irrational beliefs and we exploit them." In other words, they find market anomalies and take advantage.

The Bucks have to do the same thing if they are ever going to rise again. They have to follow the Pistons model of a few years ago. Grab productive players who are undervalued either in the draft (Tayshaun Prince), in trades (Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess,) or in mid-level free agency (Chauncey Billups, Ben Wallace). (Note: If I'm wrong about how any of those Pistons were acquired please let me know. But you get the basic point. None of them cost the Pistons a King's Ransom, and all of them were Championship Percetage pieces).

That's why I so desperately want Richard Hendrix. At the moment he would cost nothing to acquire. NOTHING. And lets just say I'm right about his value. He would have a TWCar of about, lets say he gets full playing time, he would have a TWCar of .525, which is a a Championship Percentage of 18%. How do you pass that chance up? For no cost? I ask you that?


At December 19, 2008 at 2:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey I'm a Pistons fan, but love your site and have lurked for a while.

Since you asked about the pistons players- I'm pretty sure Ben Wallace was one of the players Joe D got in return when he traded Grant Hill to the Magic.

Technically Mcdyess wasn't on the championship team, but your point definitely still stands- although you could add his place on the team was previously held by Mehmet Okur who was a 2nd round Pistons pick and was the 1st or 2nd big off the bench the championship year.

And not sure how much credit you give to Rip, but he was also acquired through trade.

Thanks again for the great site, and I'd wish your team luck in signing Hendrix, but I guess I can't because the Pistons have a roster spot available and I'd love to see them sign him too.

At December 19, 2008 at 4:26 PM, Blogger TCW said...

People from Michigan are all right, that's all I got to say, I had a bud in school from Michigan, he was cool as hell. Grand Rapids i believe. And the Professor of Hoopology is from Detroit, of course. ...

So i have a have a ton of love for the pistons, pistonnation, and for detroit in general... Motown must comeback! Thanks for the kind words and the knowledge!!

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