Bucks Diary

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Mine eyes have seen the Skiles: Sabermetric Boxscore for Bucks vs.Clippers


For the loyal readers of this little blog... think back just six short months... did you think the last two nights were possible? I mean FORGET the opponents? Did you think those kind of defensive efforts were possible from these Milwaukee Bucks? Last night the Clippers Team Win Score was 15.0! That's amazing defense... A miracle has happened... Moses has chased the Pharoah out of Egypt... the 16 year plague has lifted... What else can I say for what Scott Skiles has done? He's finally gotten the Milwaukee Bucks to commit to defense... and, as my historical analysis showed, its the surest way to a world's championship (that's why I no longer like the Lakers at all -- and why I think the Cavs look ready to win it).

Click Here for my Sabermetric Boxscore: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Clippers

Stars of the Game

1. Luke Ridnour
2. Luc Moute
3. Richard Jefferson

Notes on the Game

1. Moute is up there again. Damn, that is great to see... You notice, he plays well, the Milwaukee Bucks play well. I'll admit it to you readers, I thought the Force had left Luc, I thought either he had hit a rookie wall or the Association had figured out how to play him at the 4. Because he had, like a 2 week span of bad games... hang on, i'm going to figure out his season MWS and TWC... his Marginal Win Score currently stands at +0.9... now that's taken a beating over the past couple of weeks, but its pretty damn good for a rookie... his TWC is down as well but its still pretty outstanding for a first year, second round pick... it currently stands at +0.099... that translates into a TWC above replacement level of +0.261 (remember, he's playing 79% of his time at the second most valuable spot... power forward, so that's elevated his value considerably). That makes his Championship Percentage a lofty 9.4%. Not shabby at all for a second round pick. Not shabby at all.

2. Bogut had another sort of bad game... I'll cut him a break though, Camby is big time.

3. I hate giving positive TWC to guys like Charlie Bell who only get them because the players opposite them stink. But those are the rules... your duty is to outproduce your counterpart opponent... by any means necessary... you do that, you improve the team's win probability.

4. I can't believe how badly Luke Ridnour DESTROYED the so-called great Baron Davis. What has happened to him? He looked disinterested! I bet he's thinking about whatever movie he's gonna produce or whatever. Way to go Luke.

5. Brilliant basketball game from Richard Jefferson. Brilliant.

6. When will we see something like that from Redd. He's having a crappy season, backing up what was a CRAPPY season last year. When's he gonna start playing like a max dollar player. The reason I'm harpin on this you guys is because we've got the defense in place... all we need are those one or two efficent offensive engines to drive us to some wins, and we paid for a Ferrari engine and Redd's kind of giving us a Ford Focus... you know, it runs, but its nothing special... meanwhile RJ is like a Saab... it goes great and then it doesn't go... no wait, if he was a Saab he'd be on the injured reserve a lot, so that doesn't work....hmmmm.... anyway, the point of that mumbo jumbo is were not gettin what we paid for.

7. All in all a great two nights for the Bucks... I really don't care who the opponents were... they were NBA teams, one on the road and one at home and both of them received Sleeperholds of each of thier games from a Bucks team who six months ago couldn't apply a sleeper hold to a baby. Awesome thing to see.

Put your ears to the ground, boys... I hear a stampede a comin'... the Milwaukee Bucks are on their way back!!

    4 Comments:

    At December 21, 2008 at 6:29 AM, Anonymous Get Money said...

    awesome game

    hopefully the Bucks can keep playing well like they have been. if they keep this up they really could beat ANYBODY (including the Cavs, Lakers or Celtics).

    I kinda agree about Redd but at least he's contributing and being (relatively) unselfish. If he gets hot over the next few weeks the Bucks could be very VERY hard to beat. In the long term though I think the Bucks do need to trade him. I'd love to see a Manu Ganobli type player at shooting guard for the Bucks in the future.

    For now though, we can enjoy the past two games and look forward to more good things to come.

     
    At December 21, 2008 at 3:37 PM, Blogger TCW said...

    YES MONEY

    You are absolutely right!! In fact, I'm going to calculate the Bucks record IF Redd were Win Contributing like Ginobli!

    Thanks for the awesome idea...

     
    At December 21, 2008 at 4:48 PM, Blogger Petey Greene said...

    Like the song says, maybe they are "green and growing". You are right, their defense is on a different level from last year. I still don't think that the "the Prince" should be starting at the PF. I love his game but that's not going to work all year long. The point guard position is going to kill us down the stretch. All in all though, I love the effort and I love how Miguel Redd is playing team basketball for the most part. I think we can steal that 8th seed if we continue to hustle. At least these guys are showing effort and emotion this year and that credit goes to ol' drunk Skiles.

     
    At December 21, 2008 at 5:21 PM, Blogger TCW said...

    Guys,

    Defense is the key! I've done an historical analysis of NBA Finals, as I keep repeating like a frickin annoying parrot, and defense always trumps offense. Strong Offense / Average Defense (Lakers) will only win when facing an Above Average Offense / Above Average Defense, or something weaker.

    BUT, and this is important for Milwaukee, you CAN win with Strong Defense / Average Offense. Hell, the Celtics did it througout the Sixties (name one offensive threat on those teams... KC Jones? Hell NO! The numbers say they smothered teams with TREMENDOUS DEFENSE). Other teams who have done the same: NYK, Det (x2), SA (kinda... welllll, they've actually had great offense most of the time), Boston last season (again, kinda... they're offense ranked as above average).

    The important point for Milwaukee is this... you can instill defense... but I believe Professor Berri is going to prove in his upcoming book you cannot instill offense. That means you have to BUY offense, but you can MAKE defense, as Skiles and Auerbach and Riley have done.

    Why is that important? Because if you want to win on a budget, it must be done with defense... HELL, what am I saying? If you want to win at all, you better have defense.

    And with Skiles... WE GOT IT.

    That's why I don't get why Pressey is so depressed.

    The basement is being poured and it looks very good.

     

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