Bucks Diary

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Strange Heroes: Total Win Contribution Boxscore from Bucks vs. Bulls

If you got annoyed with the terrible broadcast signal FSN was sending out from last night's Bucks vs. Bulls game (was someone purposely unplugging the cord?), you might have read this morning's newspaper or online scorebox and then automatically assumed the Bucks won because: A.) Andrew Bogut was back; B.) Michael Redd was back; C.) Richard Jefferson was back on track; or D.) Ramon Sessions continued his outstanding play.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. Those four all had subpar games. If the Bucks had relied solely upon them, they would have lost. (Redd had a decent shooting night, but the rest of his statistical line was: 1 assist. Come on! Your getting paid maximum money and that's the sum total of your secondary contributions? You can't bother yourself to grab one rebound? That will not get it done.)

The four players who won the game for the Bucks were, in order of importance:

1. Dan Gadzuric
2. Charlie Villanueva
3. Malik Allen
4. Luke Ridnour

Substitute Tyronn Lue for Luke Ridnour, and that list would form the answer to the question "Which 4 Bucks would you least expect to win any game for Milwaukee in 2008-09?" Yet they delivered last night big time.

Special mention must go to Gadzuric, or as Coach Skiles refers to him "Danny G". Last night Gadzuric was simply the best player on the floor. He demolished the Bulls frontline. He was so good, he didn't even play half the game and he still provided a TWC of +1.500. How a guy can run arctic cold most of the time, and yet can get boiling hot on occasion -- as Gadzuric does -- I have no idea. But I can assure you of this: if he plays his regular subpar game last night, or if he just plays an average or even slightly above average game, the Bucks lose a home game they absolutely had to win.

Also, Charlie Villanueva showed just how much more effective he is when he shoots around 50% from the field. As I stated in an earlier post, scoring efficiency is his Achilles Heel. If you look at his comparative numbers, he produces more points than his opponents, and he outrebounds his opponents. He's slightly deficient in turnover margin and personal fouls, but the area that really sinks his Marginal Win Score average is shot usage. He takes 9 more field goal attempts per 48 minutes than his opponents.

And, unlike past seasons, its not because of his defense. He's holding his opponents to a just slightly above average eFG%. In years past, his defensive eFG has been much worse. No, the problem this season is Villanueva's eFG%... its hovering around 40%. That's atrocious.

If Villanueva can just get his eFG% back up to his career norms... which is around 48%... and if he can simultaneously maintain his defensive eFG% improvements, he would turn himself from a highly negative Win Contributor into a positive Win Contributor for the Bucks.


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