Bucks Diary

Thursday, December 18, 2008

What did I miss with Beasley?

The best way to learn is to examine your mistakes.


Last season I louted Michael Beasley as a can't-miss NBA Win Contributor. So far, he's missed badly. His Marginal Win Score per 48 is -4.7. That's -3.1 below "scrub" or replacement level. You can't put a guy like that on the court. He's silently killing the Miami Heat.


Where did I go so wrong?!


Well let's first see where he's deficient. His personal Win Score is 5.6 per 48 minutes. That's way below the standard for an NBA power forward (10.3-10.8) and 76% below Beasley's own collegiate WS48 of 23.5. The normal collegiate dropoff is around 37%. (Beasley's unusually large dropoff is eerily similar to Kevin Durant's rookie dropoff -- 73% -- and Adam Morrison's rookie dropoff

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