Bucks Diary

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Why is Skiles so in love with Ridnour?

Mark this date... its my first official beef with Coach Skiles. Why the hell is he playing Luke Ridnour so many minutes when the productive Ramon Sessions is sitting on the bench? Last night Ridnour was awful (look for my TWC in a minute) while Sessions was at least competitive. Yet Coach decided to play Ridnour 33 minutes while playing Sessions only 15. Bad decision, Coach, and here's why.

At the moment, Luke Ridnour's Marginal Win Score per 48 is -1.1. That's barely above replacement level. A replacement level point guard would be expected to give the team a Marginal Win Score of -1.4.

By contrast, Ramon Sessions has a Marginal Win Score at the point guard position of +2.1. That's a huge difference. Sessions at the moment has a TWCar (Total Win Contribution above replacement level) of +0.319. That's amongst the best on the team. That's a Championship Percentage of 11.6%. Not bad for a second year man... and its better than Michael Redd's or Richard Jefferson's... two guys who make about 22 times the amount Sessions is paid. Sessions is the lowest paid player on the team! That's the warped NBA labor market for you.

Meanwhile, Ridnour, the starter and trusted leader in Coach Skiles mind, and a guy making over 9 times the amount Sessions is getting paid, has a TWCar of +0.033, meaning his play is barely above replacement level. That translates into a Championship Percentage of 1.2%. If you have a starter whose CP is that low, you're never gonna get to the promised land... I promise you that.

Note: Championship Percentage is based on my theory that you have to win about 58.8 games to be a legitimate championship contender. That translates, in Total Win Contribution, to +2.75 above replacement level. Thus, you need to assemble a team that contributes that much... and every player's contribution, meaning every player's TWCar, divided by +2.75, is what I call their "Championship Percentage". I think Dwight Howard, the center, has a Championship Percentage of about 38.5%, for instance. Thus, the Magic need to add player's whose contribution above replacement adds up to about 61.5%. Meanwhile the Bucks best player, Michael Redd, has never had a TWCar above 10.8% since he signed his maximum pay contract. Meaning,the Bucks have all this money invested in a guy, and they still have to find and pay players who can contribute the additional 90% they need to get to the championship level. That's almost impossible to pull off. You can't invest heavily in a 10% CP player and succeed. You just can't do it... its NEVER been done.

Second Note: What Championship Percentage means in a nutshell is this. Teams should invest their money on the rare commodities, good centers and good power forwards. Secondly, they should invest in a good point guard, and they should expend the least amount of money at the small forward and shooting guard positions, because its much easier to find decent SG/SF than it is to find decent players at the other three positions. If you do invest heavily in the 2 or 3 position, the player had better be a superstar, like Kobe or Lebron or you are cooked. Check out the Rockets. They invested heavily in the overrated Tracy McGrady, whose TWCar last season was only +0.246, which translated to a measly Championship Percentage of 8.9%. Its no wonder they struggle to get out of the first round.


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