Bucks Diary

Sunday, October 12, 2008

"Its the Paul Mall": Ranking the NBA Point Guards by WinRate


I finished ranking the NBA point guards by the WinRate I calculated them having last season. My complete "WinProfiles" for every NBA team can be found here. They are my attempt to assign credit for each NBA win to each NBA player based upon the player's statistical production and the statistical production of the players that player was assigned to defend. Using the Win Score system, with a couple tweaks, I was able to assign wins with 93.7% accuracy. The calculations took me all summer to complete, so please.. NBA fans... critique, use, and enjoy them at your leisure.

Anyway, the Point Guard list is right below:


Random Observations about the list

1. Milwaukee Bucks point guard Ramon Sessions has blown his chance at unseating Luke Ridnour as the Bucks starting point guard, so I analyzed Ridnour's numbers instead of Sessions'. Ugg-ahh-lee...

2. Jason Kidd's numbers are a combinations of the numbers he produced in Dallas and the numbers he produced in New Jersey. He's clearly a better point guard than Devin Harris, although Harris is younger, and Kidd has to retire soon. But I just see Harris as being a middle of the road point guard for the rest of his career. I'd be shocked if he suddenly lept into the upper echelon of point guards.

3. Defensive Win Score really hurts Mo Williams evaluation. Without considering defense, he's up near the top 10 in point guard. If you consider defense, he sinks near the bottom... where my gut tells me he belongs.

4. I analyzed Jordan Farmar as the Lakers starting PG. All throughout last season, and if you followed this blog during the Finals you will know that continuing into the postseason, Farmar was far superior to the Lakers veteran point guard Derek Fisher. The Lakers would be foolish not to give Farmar the starting role.

5. I've got Mike Bibby in the bottom third of point guards. He did pick up his level of play in the postseason, but lets see if that was just an aberration. I think he's fading.

6. Toronto might benefit indirectly from the Ford-for-Jermaine O'Neal trade in this way: Even though Ford is at this stage the more valuable player, Ford was taking time from an even more valuable player in Calderon. Giving Calderon Ford's minutes should bolster the team's Win production.

7. You could really drive yourself nuts looking at how many point guards who are higher on this list than Luke Ridnour were either passed over by the Bucks in the draft or were traded away by the Bucks. Sad...

8. How quickly do you think either the Bucks or the Atlanta Hawks would agree to accept a Mulligan on the 2005 NBA Draft? Actually, raise your hand if you foresaw how awesome Chris Paul would be. I didn't. When people were debating who the number one pick should be that June, Paul's name wasn't even in the discussion. It probably should have been, hey?

9 Comments:

At October 12, 2008 at 11:05 PM, Blogger Trigorin said...

let me get this straight farmar is better than parker and davis? Calderon is better than deron williams? I believe you might want to tinker just a bit with your formula because no way farmar rates that much respect!

 
At October 12, 2008 at 11:46 PM, Blogger TCW said...

You might be right, Trigorin.

But I can't adjust the metric just to make it agree with what you or I think it ought to agree with, if you understand my point. Doing that would make the metric nothing more than a circular formula, designed to confirm our predispositions, and thus it would render it useless as an evaluation tool.

For instance, lets say I was convinced that Hank Aaron was better than Babe Ruth. If I rigged up a formula that presupposed what I was trying to prove, and then brought it forward as evidence of the very point it presumed to make, it would have absolutely no persuasive value.

That's not to say I think my formula is infallible. It isn't. But, if we can find SYSTEMIC warts, such as "your not considering this" or "your overvaluing that", then I can amend it, because I would be doing so without prejudging the results, and I would thereby preserve the intergrity of the metric itself.

But if I amend it simply because the results don't comport with what you or I believe the results ought to be... then I essentially gut the metric's value as an objective tool for assessing play.

Do you get what I'm saying? I'm not saying you're wrong in your assessment... you could be absolutely right. And many would say you are absolutely right. But I can't change the metric just on that basis and still preserve its integrity.

Thanks very much for the comment. And thanks for continuing to read the blog (even though I know from time to time you vehemently disagree with some of its contentions. BTW, that's the mark of a higher intellect -- someone who is consistently willing to consider positions with which he disagrees).

 
At October 13, 2008 at 9:09 AM, Anonymous Dave said...

I have a question on Jose Calderon.

How did Calderon rank so highly on the defensive end? His team was over 5 points worse off per 100 possessions when he's on the floor ... and his opponent PER is 16.8.

Thanks, great site by the way.

 
At October 13, 2008 at 9:15 AM, Anonymous Dave said...

Sorry for the double post but by any chance are the columns/headers offensive/defensive win shares the wrong away around?

That would explain by Chris Paul is low on the offensive end (.140) and so high on the defensive end (.352).

 
At October 15, 2008 at 3:41 PM, Blogger Trigorin said...

tcw thanks for your response. I totally agree that you can not adjust the fourmula in the way you describe. Although the example of Ruth and Aaron might be a bit off because of the difference in eras. But it seems to me that there is a flaw in your analysis that needs to be addressed. While you get an idea of what is going on with such a method you almost have to suspend disbelief if you accept the results in there entirety. The problem I see is that there is not a sure fire test for these results. You can't measure the intangibles and that means too much in this league to simply overlook. Keep up the good work and never accept that you can't make a good thing better!

 
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