"Its the Paul Mall": Ranking the NBA Point Guards by WinRate

I finished ranking the NBA point guards by the WinRate I calculated them having last season. My complete "WinProfiles" for every NBA team can be found here. They are my attempt to assign credit for each NBA win to each NBA player based upon the player's statistical production and the statistical production of the players that player was assigned to defend. Using the Win Score system, with a couple tweaks, I was able to assign wins with 93.7% accuracy. The calculations took me all summer to complete, so please.. NBA fans... critique, use, and enjoy them at your leisure.

Anyway, the Point Guard list is right below:

Click here for the WinRate ranking of projected starting Point Guards

Random Observations about the list

1. Milwaukee Bucks point guard Ramon Sessions has blown his chance at unseating Luke Ridnour as the Bucks starting point guard, so I analyzed Ridnour's numbers instead of Sessions'. Ugg-ahh-lee...

2. Jason Kidd's numbers are a combinations of the numbers he produced in Dallas and the numbers he produced in New Jersey. He's clearly a better point guard than Devin Harris, although Harris is younger, and Kidd has to retire soon. But I just see Harris as being a middle of the road point guard for the rest of his career. I'd be shocked if he suddenly lept into the upper echelon of point guards.

3. Defensive Win Score really hurts Mo Williams evaluation. Without considering defense, he's up near the top 10 in point guard. If you consider defense, he sinks near the bottom... where my gut tells me he belongs.

4. I analyzed Jordan Farmar as the Lakers starting PG. All throughout last season, and if you followed this blog during the Finals you will know that continuing into the postseason, Farmar was far superior to the Lakers veteran point guard Derek Fisher. The Lakers would be foolish not to give Farmar the starting role.

5. I've got Mike Bibby in the bottom third of point guards. He did pick up his level of play in the postseason, but lets see if that was just an aberration. I think he's fading.

6. Toronto might benefit indirectly from the Ford-for-Jermaine O'Neal trade in this way: Even though Ford is at this stage the more valuable player, Ford was taking time from an even more valuable player in Calderon. Giving Calderon Ford's minutes should bolster the team's Win production.

7. You could really drive yourself nuts looking at how many point guards who are higher on this list than Luke Ridnour were either passed over by the Bucks in the draft or were traded away by the Bucks. Sad...

8. How quickly do you think either the Bucks or the Atlanta Hawks would agree to accept a Mulligan on the 2005 NBA Draft? Actually, raise your hand if you foresaw how awesome Chris Paul would be. I didn't. When people were debating who the number one pick should be that June, Paul's name wasn't even in the discussion. It probably should have been, hey?