Bucks Diary

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Postgame Notes: Game 2 vs OKC Thunder

My pregame "PVOA-based" prediction was the Bucks would win the game, 95-91. I was off by 3 on the Bucks score and -4 on the Thunder score, but I got the ultimate result correct. Pretty good.

The game was obviously decided by either the Bucks defense or the Thunder's incompetence. Its hard to say for sure. I texted that question to the Diesel during the game (he's got impeccable basketball judgment) and even he said "Unsure".

One thing is sure. The Thunder sucked. Their team Win Score was an unbelievably bad 20.5. Going by last season's NBA average team Win Score per game (43.6), the Thunder averaged a remarkable -4.6 Win Score per on-court player. That is bad to the bone (by the way, that is the Milwaukee Bucks team Defensive Win Score, meaning the Bucks defensive Win Contributions will be simply awesome).

The Return of RJ???
Wow was it great to see the RJ of three seasons ago show up for the first time in a Bucks uniform. Jefferson had an Offensive Win Score of +7.8. When you figure in his percentage of playing time, that computes to a huge Win Contribution of +1.130. Of course I temper myself because he was matched up against last season's Bizarro MVP, Jeff Green. But still, he hadn't done it against anyone yet so it was great to see. Go RJ!!

Redd, how bout some boards, buddy??
I hate to be negative on such a positive night for the Green and Red, but what the hell is with Michael Redd grabbing a big ZERO rebounds?? Redd was brilliant in the opener, that's for sure, but tonight his offense was awful evidenced by his Offensive Win Score of -7.41. His numbers were so low because, besides shooting the ball, he was unproductive. He's the team's highest paid player so I think I am within my rights to demand that he bring it every night, and tonight he did not.

When did Ridnour become Rodman?
Tonight Luke Ridnour demonstrated the value of rebounding when you can't score. He was pathetic offensively, but for the second straight night he was all over the boards (for a guy his size), grabbing 6 rebounds. That boarding effort gave him an Offensive Win Score of +0.0. That's how you can contribute and give your team a chance to win when your offensive game aint working.

Good game for Lue
Tyronn Lue has established himself as the backup point guard. Tonight the veteran had an excellent game, scoring a +3.0 Offensive Win Score. We need good play from the point, and tonight he provided it.

Dont get down on his Royal Highness
Coach Skiles said he loved Luc Richard Moute's performance in the preseason, but he wanted to see if it would carry to the regular season. Thus far it sort of hasn't but I hope Coach Skiles doesnt give up on the Rook because he can play and he is going to be a very important Milwaukee Buck in the years to come.

Where'd Joe go?
We are witnessing one of the perks of having an established coach at the helm. On a team with the Bucks modest prospects, there is normally enormous political pressure to play a high draft pick whether he deserves the minutes or not. Last season Coach K, being a rookie coach, was forced to play high pick Yi Jianlian. As my Win Profiles showed, Jianlian had a negative impact on the team. He was given minutes he probably did not deserve.

Coach Skiles, faced with the same situation and a similarly unready player in lottery pick Joe Alexander, has thus far resisted any political pressure to play Joe Alexander. Playing Alexander would hurt the Bucks and Skiles knows it, and, more importantly, has the juice to avoid it.

The 2007-08 Bizarro MVP
As you remember, my "Bizarro MVP" for last season was Thunder SF/PF Jeff Green. He had the largest negative impact of any player in the NBA. He's at it again. Against the Bucks tonight, Green recorded an absurdly bad Offensive Win Score of -12.1, and an Offensive Win Contribution of -1.379. And, when you figure that Bucks SF Richard Jefferson was his Counterpart Opponent for most of the night, and RJ had a huge night, that means the reigning Bizarro MVP is at it again.


At October 30, 2008 at 12:20 AM, Anonymous Blake said...

I'm very happy we didn't play Alexander, Skiles is a smart coach and realizes that playing him would help this team lose.

Some of my friends have been saying that Sessions is the worst defensive player on the team although I have to disagree with them. Since Mo is no longer on the team is Villa now the worst defensive player on the Bucks? I haven't really seen his defensive play this season, but as you're defensive win score says he is the worst carrying on from last season.

At October 30, 2008 at 1:28 AM, Blogger TCW said...


Both are poor defenders, but Villanueva is clearly the worst defender on the team.

Sessions is out of the rotation, in my opinion, because of his turnovers and poor shooting this preseason. I believe Skiles, as an ex-point guard, puts a premium on those two areas when he evaluates other point guards.

At October 30, 2008 at 7:50 AM, Anonymous Jordan said...

Ty, love the work man.

Really enjoy checking out the production after the games and comparing it to how I thought it played out.

Keeps me in check, keep it up.

At October 30, 2008 at 11:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Congrats on the win and on predicting it correctly! The Bucks should be an interesting show this year.

BTW, I'm basking in your joy because I am likewise miserable. Magic loosing to the Hawks in the home opener is just bad man...


At October 30, 2008 at 12:41 PM, Anonymous EricBern said...


I Disagree that the Bucks have found their backup point guard. Lue posted a -8 on court +/-, and a -29 on/off court minus when compared to the stiff-backed Ridnour; against what surely will be one of the worst teams in the NBA.

While Lue was running the show, he continually over-dribbled and wasted precious seconds of the shot clock directly and indirectly. Just one example of indirectly wasting shot clock time was when he passed the ball to Bogut outside the 3-point line where Drew is in no-threat instead of triple-threat position. I mean what the heck is he going to do with the ball out there?? That's about 5 or more wasted seconds. When it takes on average of about 7 seconds or so to reach the scoring zone, of a 24-second shot clock, handling/decision making needs to be efficient. Otherwise you're going to be taking forced, dribble-up jumpers and garbage contested shots, out of necessity, late in the clock. Not really ideal for any team....but especially for one who lacks individual players who can efficiently create their own shots quickly. There are no Michael Jordan's on this team, not even Tracy McGrady's. Tyronn Lue is a poor man's Mo Williams....who the Bucks relieved themselves of for good reason.

You lauded Ridnour for his rebounding, but his impact is felt more by his decision making (not counting the early shot clock dribble-up jumpers). Probes early, makes the defense rotate, and is usually giving the balls to players in positions where they can do damage.

Also, I disagree about how much Redd's lack of rebounding was a detriment in this game. The Bucks were +8 on the boards so who cares what an individual guard contributes in that area. If the frontcourt is handling their business fine, no need to try to steal boards they'd grab anyways. One would be better served leaking out and trying to get a transition opportunity. Also, on offense not everyone can try to secure reloads, unless the ball comes out to your area, lest relinquish transition opportunities yourself.

All the starters fulfilled their roles well, for the most part, and that's why they created such a big bulge in this game.

Appreciate your contributions, though.

At October 30, 2008 at 1:28 PM, Anonymous Seattle Bucks said...

I know it is just the Thunder, but it seemed that the Bucks actually had a plan and stuck to it for the first time in a long time.

At November 1, 2008 at 10:22 AM, Blogger TCW said...


You're right. You busted me making a categorical statement without all the evidence.

(I was hoping that would just slide by unnoticed... LOL)


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