Bucks Diary

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Bucks bounce back: Total Win Contribution boxscore for Bucks vs. Spurs

By popular demand, the Total Win Contribution boxscore is back. (I actually agree that its a much cleaner account of how each Buck played). How did I get it done so fast? I discovered that NBA.com has a running transcript during the game... so I was doing it during the game, and I nailed precisely the Spurs number of Win Score points.

Slight change to TWC boxscore

Driving around in my car, I made a discovery that should have been obvious to me from the beginning. Under my Offense-Defense Win Score system, there's absolutely no need to adjust for position. Why? Because the only thing that matters is the player's marginal Win Score per 48 minutes visavis the opponents he was guarding. If he records more Win Score points, he contributes to victory, if he does not he moves the team toward defeat.

Thus my TWC now has each player's RAW Win Score, his CO's RAW Win Score... then I take that and divide it by minutes played, multiply that number by 48 and then divide by 2. That is the player's Marginal Win Score per 48.

Stars of the Game

1. Andrew Bogut +0.949
2. Richard Jefferson +0.931
3. Luc Moute +0.598

Notes on the Game

1. Jefferson on fire
If you read my Bucks Player Value Rating chart, which charted each Bucks win contributions to date, you will know that RJ has been the leading Win Contributor on the Bucks, and that he is playing like the RJ of 3 years ago. I love his leadership, too. I hope he maintains top dog status when Redd gets back.

2. Bogut bounces back
After an absolutely terrible performance against the Cavaliers, Andrew Bogut bounced back with a huge night against the Spurs. Take away his TWC, or Jefferson's, and the Bucks lose.

3. What happened to Croshere?
As you know, I don't concern myself with roster status, salary cap issues, etc. That's the domain of the JSonline blog. I can't compete with them in those areas, so I don't even try. What I try to do is provide Bucks fans with insight and analysis they can't get anywhere else. As a result, however, I often lose track of players. Can someone help me on this one. Where the hell is Austin Croshere? Didn't we sign him weeks ago?

4. Moute Magnificent
After getting schooled by LeBron James (which is no badge of dishonor), Luc Moute had a magnificent defensive game playing power forward all night. Remarkable. Remember, as I've noted many times (you're probably sick of it) Luc Moute's standing reach, which I consider basketball height, is above average for a shooting guard, nowhere else. And its not like he's Mr. Buff, either. Playing him at power forward is the equivalent of playing Redd at power forward. Yet he holds up game after game. What a find. And remember who called it first... Bucksdiary.

5. Sessions steps it up
Ramon Sessions, I'm so proud of him. As I have said, I think he was close to finding a permanent spot on Coach Skiles "Pay No Mind" list... you know, where Malik Allen and Dan Gadzuric currently reside. But he got a second chance and he's seized it like all get out. And we needed him to do so.... he's our point guard of the future.


At November 13, 2008 at 12:30 AM, Anonymous Blake said...

Charlie Bell was making some amazing shots vs the Suns and now vs the Spurs he gives the worst win score on the team. He's not very consistent.

And I beleive Croshere is riding the bench right now, obviously he is just there for injuries or Skiles is waiting for him to get used to his style of play?

At November 13, 2008 at 12:42 AM, Blogger TCW said...

He had a pretty nice game against the Cavaliers as well. The Cavaliers won that game upfront... had I did a "dirty" TWC Boxscore (I estimated WS48 at every position and then divided the estimates according to how I thought Coach Skiles would matchup)and it showed that the Bucks got absolutely destoryed... not only by LeBron, they got it worse from Varejo (sp?). He had an even bigger game than LBJ... and Big Z just ate up Bogut.

But the good news was Mo Williams had a terrible game. The Bucks dominated positions 1, 2, and 3, but the Cavs domination at 4 and 5 overrode that, and thus the Cavs won.


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