Bucks Diary

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Revisiting my quirky Bogut stat


Last week on the Channel 32 Sports Roundtable, I heard some guy from WTMJ Radio say "Andrew Bogut's got a better jumpshot than most people think". Ahh, that assertion would be DEAD-ON only if most people mistakenly believed Andrew Bogut is missing both his arms. On the other hand, if most people believed Andrew Bogut could make jump shots, but just doesn't do it very often, then that statement is pure bunk.

Do you remember last summer when I was bored and I decided to estimate what Andrew Bogut's win production would be if he would merely forego jump shots altogether? And remember how I speculated Bogut would be an elite level center if he were to do so? That logic still holds... and so does my recommendation.

According to 82games.com and their staff of unusually anal retentive basketball observers, Bucks center Andrew Bogut has attempted 18 jump shots this season and produced 8 points from those attempts. If you're counting, that's a net minus 10 Win Score, or the equivalent of 10 unnecessary turnovers of possession to Bucks opponents.

As a result, even though Bogut's current offensive Win Score per 48 is a robust 12.4, it could be an even better 13.2 if he would just merely kick the jump shooting habit!! And remember, his jump shot "turnovers" increase exponentially with his overall shot attempts, meaning the Win Score production deficit will continue to grow as the season wears on.

Why don't the Bucks take my suggestion -- RIGHT NOW -- and institute a series of fines against Bogut... for his own good... any time he attempts a shot without having both of his feet within one step of paint?! We don't pay the guy to shoot jump shots!! They harm the team!! Aren't the Bucks interested in disincentivizing activities that harm the team?

The problem, of course, is the modern belief that centers are just overpaid clods unless they can "step out" and hit outside shots. What a bunch of bullshit!! There's a reason the greatest players of all time normally played close to the basket... its easier to do productive things there.

You know what I actually heard ESPN commentator Jon Barry suggest last night? He suggested the Chicago Bulls "push Greg Oden" away from the basket, because he can't make shots out there.

Okay, first of all, have you ever seen a team successfully "push" anyone away from the basket by anything more than an insignificant amount? No, its a foul... its called "riding"! Second, the obvious counter move by Oden is to continue to do what he's been doing... hanging around the basket where he can be most productive.

That's the strategy, by and large, that Andrew Bogut uses. I just want him to take it to its logical extreme.

2 Comments:

At November 21, 2008 at 5:07 PM, Anonymous Seattle Bucks said...

I agree. If the Bucks wanted a 7 footer taking jump shots, they would have kept Yi.

What is frustratiing is that Bougt made jump shots in college and in the Olympics he had a better 3pt. field goal percentage than Michael Redd.

Maybe he could wear a Boomers jersey under his Bucks jersey and hope his outside shot won't be able to tell the difference.

 
At November 21, 2008 at 11:15 PM, Anonymous paulpressey25 said...

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I just don't see Bogut taking that many jumpshots. Sure, maybe he'll take one or two 10-15 footers a game but I like that because it sometimes brings the defense out. He needs to develop that elbow jump shot and if he ever did, he'd be an all-star center. I just don't sense his taking too many jumpers is what is holding him back. What holds him back are the games where he comes out and plays like he has Mono and ends up getting pulled with 5 points and 3 rebounds. And also his FT percentage. If he could improve to a 70-75% FT shooter, his effectiveness would go way up.

If we want to fine someone for outside shooting, it would be for Charlie V and his taking of three pointers.

 

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