The Next Marques Johnson?

Watching last night's boring-as-hell Bucks game, all I could think about was how good soon-to-be free agent Charlotte Bobcat SF Gerald Wallace would look in a Bucks uniform. He could be the next Marques Johnson.

Yesterday I was pimpin for the Greyhound, Bobby Dandridge. Along with Dandridge, the other great small forward in Milwaukee Bucks history was #6, Marques Johnson. Its a waste of time to pimp for his number to be retired because of some personal issues he had ("Ridin that train, high on..."), but there is no doubt he was a terrific player in Green and Red.

Anyway, I saw visions of him last night in Charlotte orange. Wallace's aggressive, athletic game is similar in many ways to what Johnson's was. Both attack the basket relentlessly and are very comfortable in the post. Both produce at an exceptional rate for the small forward. Johnson probably had a better stop-and-pop game, and Wallace is probably a slightly better rebounder. Nevertheless, the comparisons are striking.

Of course, getting Wallace all boils down to where the Bucks fall in the lottery and whom they pick, as well as whether or not they want to spend some money this off-season (and, of course, the pesky issue of that overbloated paycheck they already owe SF Bobby Simmons). All that and more must be taken into account. Still, if they are going to play the free agent market, I doubt they will find a more productive potential addition than Gerald Wallace.

Pimpin for #10, Bobby D

A couple of years ago I bought a CD at the Bradley Center called "Milwaukee Bucks Greatest Hits Volume I". It contains the standard stadium anthems but it also has some sweet original calls made by the Original Voice of the Bucks, Eddie Doucette. I've been trying to figure out how to put them on this site so people can click on them and listen to them, but that's not the point right now.

I want to concentrate on one of the clips called "Champions at Last". Its from the Bucks Radio Network's call of the 1971 NBA Finals which pitted your Milwaukee Bucks against the Baltimore Bullets (now, obviously, the Washington "Wizards" -- God, I hate that nickname). Here is the relevant audio transcript:

Eddie Doucette: "This is it, boy, I'll tell ya, we've got these games with Baltimore, and if we can win it all we are the World's Champions. Who will our starting line-up be Larry?"

Coach Costello: "Alcindor at center, Greg Smith and Dandridge at forwards, and Jon McGlocklin and Oscar Robertson at guards."

Of that starting five announced by Larry Costello, there were four vital pieces and one role player (Greg Smith). Of the four vital pieces to Milwaukee's only World Championship to date, 3 of the names and numbers hang forever in the Bradley Center rafters. One name and number is conspicuously missing: #10, "The Greyhound" Bobby Dandridge.

#10 should be in the rafters

Some people devote their lives to worthy pet causes. The environment, world peace, adopting third world babies, etc. I'm devoting this post to my pet cause: retiring Bobby Dandridge's number 10. Its an injustice that needs correction.

I've only seen him play on "Hardwood Classics" on the NBA channel. He was skinnier and shorter than Kevin Durant. His jumpshot was pancake flat, and when he shot it from the post he launched it in a funny manner (he would jump while his back was still to the basket and then twist in mid-air and launch his shot). In other words, he wasn't your prototypical stud small forward. But he could run like the wind (hence his nickname "The Greyhound" -- bestowed upon him by Doucette) and he produced big numbers for some of the greatest teams in Milwaukee Bucks' history.

If you look at the Bucks all-time statistical categories, you will find Bobby Dandridge's name in the Top 5 in games played, minutes played, and points, and in the top 10 in rebounds (and he was only 6'5''). He was an important member of the only two teams in Bucks history to reach the NBA Finals (they should have won two World's Championships with Dandridge at forward -- they lost in 1974 mainly because of an injury to Lucius Allen). And yet he is the forgotten Buck.

Just look at the numbers

Beyond his aforementioned historical contributions to the franchise's Glory Days you have his superior production. Dandridge's numbers in Bucks' Green and Red are as good as, or better than, many of the Milwaukee Bucks players already up in the rafters. Here's a rundown of the Eff48 numbers of the immortals whose numbers have already been retired compared with Dandridge's (see the bottom of the previous post for an explanation of Eff48):

1. Abdul-Jabbar...................43.60 (Incredible!)
2. Lanier............................29.10
3. Dandridge.......................28.20
4. Moncrief.........................27.11

5. Robertson.......................27.08
6. Bridgeman.......................24.13
7. Winters..........................23.17
8. McGlocklin.......................20.90

Source: databasebasketball.com

So why isn't #10 in the rafters already?

So, Dandridge was a key contributor to the greatest teams in Bucks history. And his production numbers in a Bucks uniform were better than every player amongst the Bucks already retired numbers except Abdul-Jabbar and Lanier (consider also: in his two Bucks' seasons after Kareem left the team, his Eff48 was 30.18 -- HUGE numbers for a small forward). Yet he remains dissed. Why?

I think its political. He defected to the Washington Bullets in 1977 (where he won two more conference championships and one more World Championship). I don't think he's been forgiven for that (even though he did come back to the Bucks in '81 -- way past his prime and just for a cup of coffee).

Its time to forgive and remember. Free Bobby D! Put #10 up where it belongs... in the rafters of the BC.

Correction: My original post very unjustly slighted the great Oscar Robertson. I originally hastily calculated his Eff48 numbers in a Bucks uniform as seventh best among the list considered at 20.76. A recalculation on my fingers, toes, and an abicus shows I was way off and his actual numbers are the far superior numbers now listed. All of the other numbers have been double-checked and are accurate.

The Race for 3rd Worst

All that's left now for the Bucks is the NBA Lottery and a chance at either Durant or Oden. Thus, it is in their best interests to finish as poorly as possible and attempt to secure the third worst record in the Association (the bottom two spots seem out of reach).

For that reason I decided to take a close look at the race for that third worst spot. Here's how it stands. At the moment the Bucks are tied with the Charlotte Bobcats for the spot, and have a 0.5 game "lead" on the Atlanta Hawks, a 2.5 game lead on the Philadelphia 76ers and Seattle Supersonics, and a 3.0 game lead on the Portland Trailblazers.

Amongst that pack of "contenders" for third worst, the Hawks have the easiest schedule left, followed by the Bucks, then the Sixers, then the Bobcats. The Western Conference contenders have by far the hardest remaining schedules, with the Blazers having a slightly harder schedule than the Sonics.

So the race is closer than it might appear at first blush. Coolstandings.com, which projects teams final records based upon a computer model, has the Bobcats barely beating out the competition for third worst, with the Bucks finishing tied for fourth worst with the Hawks, and the rest of the pack finishing either a game or two games behind.

So, the Bucks have some work to do to secure that third spot.

Here's a breakdown of the race, with the games back in yellow, the remaining opponents winning percentage in green, and the remaining home and road games in red.

1. (--) (.450) (7-5)
2. (--) (.477) (6-5)
3. (0.5) (.441) (5-5)
4. (2.5) (.470) (5-7)
5. (2.5) (.566) (5-7)
6. (3.0) (.576) (5-5)

Footnote 1: Remember when reading this post to invert your normal thinking. In the race to the bottom, "Games back" is obviously the equivalent of "Games ahead" in the real standings, and the teams whose opponents have better winning percentages are actually in a favorable position vis-a-vis those teams whose opponents have lower winning percentages.

Footnote 2: All calculations as to strength of schedule were done by me, as were the tabulations of home vs. away games remaining. Both are, to the best of my knowledge, accurate. (I used my "fingers, toes, and an abacus" as Voice of the Bucks Ted Davis would say.) However, if you see any inaccuracies, please let me know. Also, see the comment section for additional discussion of the coolstandings.com forecasts.

Oh hey, we're movin on down

Somewhere in Florida, the Mequon Diesel is smiling. Why? The Bucks couldn't beat UWGB with their current available roster. And I'm almost being serious. Which means they are once again poised to make a run down the lottery list. Last night they moved down a notch to sole possession of the third worst record in the Association.

Bad is Good for the Bucks

Last week I was a little glum because I thought the Bucks couldn't possibly lose even a bare majority of their remaining games. It turns out I once again overestimated those wacky Bucks and their inability to stay out of the trainer's office. In one week's time, they've rallied and are headed back in the right direction -- south with a bullet!

And the losing seems like its here to stay. The roster they had last night featured ONE player (I'm not counting Jared Reiner as a "player") who could be called a "big man", and that was journeyman Brian Skinner. Everyone else was either a guard or wingman (Terry Stotts' dream line-up!!). That roster is brilliantly positioned to lose.

On the bad side, its becoming increasingly more painful to watch the Bucks Television Network. Last night, I had to hide the remote from myself just to keep from switching channels.

20 Spins Volume 6


Here we go with 20 Spins, Volume 6. The Bucks are now semi-locked into the third worst spot, and it helped the spin results. I got 30% in the Durant/Oden zone, much better results than I was getting when the Bucks were in the fourth worst spot. Once again, however, I have to add this caveat: Look at the number of bad results I got (ie results lower than the Bucks rightful spot). It was a whopping 60%! And that lughead Jeff Van Gundy wants to open the lottery to every team.

Pirahna conspiracy theory

With the Bucks so undermanned, I wonder why the Pirahna, aka Ruben Patterson, only got 12 minutes of PT? He's not in my Eff48 Boxscore, because I cut off at around 20 minutes of PT, but if he would have been, he would have had by far the best numbers on the team. Maybe they're grooming Ilyasova as next year's backup small forward.

Bucks Diary Eff48 Boxscore

87

Skinner........................................21.51

Redd...........................................19.69

Boykins........................................17.56

Bell.............................................16.80

Ilyasova........................................16.69

106
McGrady..........................................32.91
Head..............................................31.05
Howard...........................................27.69
Battier............................................25.84
Alston.............................................21.94
Ming...............................................16.69

Bucks Diary's 20 Spins: Volume 5

Well, after yesterday's blowout loss to the undermanned Pistons, the good news is 20 Spins is back in full effect. The bad news is look at the crap results I got. It shows what a screw the lottery is. A full 60% of my spins landed below the Bucks rightful picking spot (4th). I did however, get a better percentage of 1st pick results than I got last time (20%).

Yesterday's Matinee


There's not much I can add about yesterday's loss because I had to listen to it on the Bucks Radio Network. Clearly, though, the Pistons exposed the Bucks depleted frontline.

Detroit didn't get much out of their usual stars (Billups had a bad game; Wallace and Hamilton were out) but they got spectacular games from reserves Jason Maxiell, Flip Murray, and Antonio McDyess, as well as starter Tayshaun Prince.

All I can say is, our friends over at Detroitbadboys.com must be psyched for the playoffs. The Pistons appear loaded for bear.

Flippin the logic

The most entertaining thing I got out of yesterday's radio broadcast happened in the pregame portion when Detroit coach Flip Saunders tried to argue that the Pistons would have a hard time defending the Bucks because they had a hard time against "the low assist teams". I swear I didn't make that up! It would have made Lou Holtz blush. (Its like some dude saying "Yeah, I have a really hard time picking up ugly chicks, but I excel with the hotties.")

Bucks Diary Eff48 Boxscore

95
Bell....................................26.32
Ilyasova...............................25.41
Williams...............................23.17
Boykins................................22.73
Noel....................................21.60
Redd...................................16.42
Skinner................................08.47
Patterson..............................00.00
121
McDyess..................................49.77
Maxiell....................................39.99
Prince.....................................37.62
Murray....................................29.41
Billups.....................................11.36
Webber....................................03.69

Photo Credit: AP/Morry Gash

Julian Wright a high pick? Seriously?

I basically avoid college basketball (with the exception of the Badgers) until late March, and then my interest is usually small-time gambling related. I'm NBA all the way. So, I am no authority on college players.

However, when a player is mentioned as a possible future Milwaukee Buck, I get interested. And Chad Ford of Espn.com has the Bucks drafting Julian Wright from Kansas if they don't get their preferred shot at Oden or Durant. So, I've paid special attention to the Kansas games in the last two rounds. I have to say I was seriously underwhelmed by Mr. Wright.

That's a decidedly minority opinion, though. Ford, Nbadraft.net, and Scouts.com all rave about the guy. They describe him as an ultra-versatile poor man's Kevin Durant.

That's not what I saw at all. I saw an unproductive, somewhat unpolished player who at times looked clumsy. Both Southern Illinois and UCLA had no problem keeping him in check. It should also be noted that for an allegedly elite player, he made no attempt to take over either important game, and it didn't look like he was capable of doing it even if he wanted to.

Basically I saw a guy who could do a little of everything okay, and nothing particularly well. I saw Ice Reynolds Jr.

But I liked Tito's Boy


On the other hand, I liked what I saw of former Milwaukee Buck stiff Tito Horford's son, Al. Yeah, he's got no offensive game, but he seems to play hard and crashes the boards like a madman. And, he goes after opponent's shots. Isn't this exactly the kind of player who would perfectly compliment Andrew Bogut's game?

Photo Credits: Espn.com

Bucks Diary's 20 Spins: Volume IV

Since the "unforeseen circumstances" I assumed away when I suspended "Bucks Diary's 20 Spins" have actually occured (Bogut and Villanueva are both done for the year), I am resuming the game, at least until the Bucks rise above the 5th worst record in the NBA (they are currently at no. 4).

For those unfamiliar with the game, I take 20 spins on the ESPN Lottery Generator and post the results on Bango's Big Board. Today's most frequent result was the 3rd spot (35%). But, once again, that 5th spot looms large (30%). Unfortunately, only 10% of my spins landed in either the 1st spot or the 2nd spot, ie the money picks.

Andy and Charlie: Year Two

Now that both C Andrew Bogut and PF Charlie Villanueva have been shut down for the remainder of the season, I did a statistical analysis of each player's sophomore year productivity. Both had slight upticks in most of their major statistical categories, but neither lept up to the elite status most Bucks fans had hoped for. Perhaps they are both destined to be middle-of-the-road players, or maybe they will blossom under the new leadership of Coach K. Either way, next year is a critical year for the two.

I list each player's 2006-07 statistics in white, and their 2005-06 statistics in green.

Andrew Bogut


Eff48: 24.69 (23.85)
eFG: 55.4 (53.3)
Jumper eFG: 30.7 (30.5)
Inside eFG: 64.3 (59.4)
FTA/FGA: 27.1% (28.1%)
Passer Rating: 4.0 (3.4)
Rebounder Rating: 28.0 (26.2)
Shot Blocker Rating: 2.6 (4.9)
Ballhandler Rating: 10.5 (10.5)
Defensive eFG: 54.8 (48.2)
Reb/48: 12.4 (11.0)
Ast/48: 4.8 (3.9)
Pts/48: 17.2 (15.8)

Strengths: Excellent passer from the high post. Decent position defender; not a shot blocker at all. Has a crafty game down low, but will never be a McHale type in the post because he lacks the athleticism. Handles the ball very well for a big man. Productive, if not dominant rebounder.

Needs Improvement: I think Bogut should take a page from Bill Laimbeer and really work to develop his outside shot. If he could make that shot from the side of the circle consistenly, he could really improve his offensive output. It would open up the passing lanes for his deadly bounce passes, and he could provide himself with drive-by opportunities. He's got a nice release on the thing, but as Jonny Mac has pointed out, he's got some mechanical problems (he fades away on it, despite the fact that its a set shot). And, as I have discussed in the past, he must become a more consistent free thrower. Again, nice release and rotation, bad results. If he could just pick up production points in those two areas he could rise from the mediocre echelon of centers (right now his numbers match the Benoit Benjamins of the world) to the above average (Divac, Laimbeer, Brad Miller... those types).

Charlie Villanueva


Eff48: 23.85 (23.06)
eFG: 50.8 (50.0)
Jumper eFG: 42.1 (42.1)
Inside eFG: 65.5 (60.7)
FTA/FGA: 21.0% (15.7%)
Passer: 1.4 (1.7)
Rebounder: 24.5 (24.2)
Ballhandler: 7.9 (10.0)
Defensive eFG: 54.5 (55.4)
Reb/48: 11.0 (11.1)
Ass/48: 1.8 (1.9)
Pts/48: 23.1 (21.7)

Strengths: Excellent offensive player. Very effective in the post (more so than I think he himself realizes). Has range on his jumper, but isn't as good from the outside as he believes he is. Has a high Eff48 ceiling (possibly in the low 30s).

Needs Improvement: He has to learn to bring it every night. Perhaps his shoulder problem had something to do with his inconsistent production. He started out very well, with an Eff48 of 30.58 for the month of November, but declined from there after getting hurt. He needs to get more of a power forward mindset. He's highly effective down low (65.5%), but he's inclined to want to bomb from the outside, where he's far less effective (42.1%). He is a below average rebounder for his position, and he simply must improve his defense. And it wouldn't hurt to mix in an assist or two every now and again.

Bucks come almost all the way back

I was at the BC for last night's game. It was a pretty sleepy affair until, part way into the fourth quarter, Brian Skinner finally had enough of watching the Clippers PF Elton Brand casually turn around and bury jumpers over him. On this occasion, when Brand turned into the lane for yet another fade away, Skinner decided to karatechop him across the arm. Brand was given two shots, but that little act of rebellion started the Bucks on their way to one of the most astounding comebacks I have ever seen.

The comeback was fueled almost completely by defense (and incredible one-legged jumpshots by Michael Redd). Defense is all about energy and discomfort. The Bucks were playing decent position defense for 3 1/3 quarters, but the Clippers were scoring at will, because the Bucks weren't playing it with enough energy and weren't making the Clippers uncomfortable.

The prime example was Brand. Skinner was playing decent defense on him, getting a hand in his face on most every shot, but it didn't effect Brand in the least, because Skinner wasn't making him uncomfortable. As soon as he gave him a hard foul, however, Brand was not the same player. He became uncomfortable.

The rest of the Bucks responded to this momentum shift. Suddenly, their defense as a whole became kinetic. That extra burst of hyper energy completely took the Clippers out of the collective comfort zone they had existed in. Suddenly they started throwing the ball away. Suddenly they couldn't make shots. And just as suddenly, the Bucks got back in the game.

They didn't come all the way back, but that's okay by me. It turned out to be one of the better Bucks games I've been to in a long time.

Bucks have NOTHING behind Bogut

I was stunned that Bogut was not in the lineup. I heard nothing about his injury prior to the game. I was horrified to see Jared Reiner in the starting lineup. I then scanned the Bucks bench and saw Bogut barely complying with Commissioner Stern's dress code (he looked dressed for the upcoming Bradley Center Rodeo save for the token sport coat it looks like he threw on as an afterthought). I knew then we would sink or swim without Bogut.

Now let me tell you something you already knew. Jared Reiner sucks. Completely. He stumbled around last night and got nothing done except for some very ill-advised passes that were turnovers. He has no lift whatsoever in the middle. He simply takes up space.

Clearly the Bucks are in bad, bad shape without Bogut and Villanueva. Perhaps its time to reinstate "Bango's Big Board" and the "Bucks Diary 20 spins" game, because the Bucks will be hard pressed to win with Reiner and Damir Markota as two of their 3 prime big men.

Still love for E.T.

Prior to the fourth quarter rally, the loudest the BC got was when the ageless extraterrestrial Sam Cassell entered the game. Yeah, there were boos, but by and large he received a pretty hardy ovation. And he produced. Prior to his back spasms, the Bucks couldn't handle the old guy.

Redd is hurting... but producing big!

I'm going back to my original diagnosis of the incredible Michael Redd. He is a hurting unit. Whenever he reentered the game last night, he was clearly limping -- a telltale sign that his tendinitis is bothering him. Still, he made some unbelievable one-legged circus shots to get the Bucks back in the game. And for the third straight game under Coach K, he put up elite level Eff48 numbers, up in the LeBron/Kobe range. That's because he's producing in more ways than just scoring, and that's great to see. Kudos to Mike for playing in pain and producing like an All-Star.

Fear the Pirahna

I know I've written this time and time again, but I love Ruben Patterson's game. During the Bucks rally, it was all about Redd and the Pirahna. He tied the game with a sweet, sweet left handed reverse that made me jump out of my seat and scream "Fear the Pirahna!". Then he did this pose at midcourt that was like "You know what time it is -- its Pirahna time!". I loved it. I can't remember a Bucks player in the last 10 years who has been more electrifying than Ruben.

Bucks Diary Eff48 Boxscore

103
Patterson.......................................30.66
Redd.............................................30.00
Bell...............................................27.42
Skinner..........................................24.00
Williams..........................................22.73
Reiner............................................06.00

104
Brand..............................................31.25
Maggette...........................................31.05
Hart................................................24.77
Kaman..............................................19.20
Mobley..............................................18.00
Ewing................................................09.00
Ross..................................................01.41

Coach K's a believer

Driving around in my car this afternoon I heard a soundbite from Coach K that almost made me swerve off the road. I heard it on Milwaukee's AM 1250 WSSP ("Home of The Bucks Postgame Show -- beginning immediately after the conclusion of each Bucks game").

He was speaking about Bucks SG Michael Redd. He said, as I recall, "I think he's done a great job for us over the last two games. I've talked to him and told him, if he wants to reach the elite level in the NBA he has to make a consistent effort to get his teammates involved. He's done a good job of that."

If you recall, those words are nearly identical to the ones I wrote yesterday and have been preaching for a long time. Now granted, the same thing has been said of great shooting guards in the past (Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, etc). But just the same, could Coach K be a reader of Mke Bucks Diary? Well, as Dean Wormer's wife said to Otter, "Aaahh... doubtful. Very doubtful."

But I'm going to hold onto that dream.

Apparently Coach K's no fashionista, either

I was going to use this blurb to prop Coach K for his forward fashion. I noticed during the Spurs game he wore brown shoes with his suit. I have these brown shoes I love, but I can't get away wearing them with my suits because my girlfriend thinks its the ugliest look she's ever seen. So I am stuck wearing black wingtips (I have no individual style sense whatsoever, so I always defer to her -- unless she makes comments like "Every guy should wear Prada." Then I get off that metrosexual boat.)

You can imagine my excitement when I saw the 'brown shoe' look on Kristo during his Bradley Center inaugural game. Was he setting a new trend for BucksNation to follow? Like when President Kennedy went to his inauguration hatless? I even had a name for it... "The Montana Look".

Then my balloon burst when I heard his wife Jan on Milwaukee's ESPN Radio's "The D List". The voices of the show were ribbing her about Coach K's utter lack of fashion sense ("There's no G or Q in Krystkowiak, is there?...huh, huh, huh"). Jan laughed in agreement and said something like "I've been after him for years about that... but he has a great response -- You can't polish a turd."

Indeed, you cannot. Well, I guess its wingtips, then. I notice Coach K's back to that look anyway (see above photo).

New life for Bogut?

New Bucks coach Larry Krystkowiak has said Bucks C Andrew Bogut has been an underutilized asset. He has said he intends to run the offense through Bogut, and is interested to see how Bogut responds to his more "free-flowing" sets. So far, he's responded pretty well. Bogut's Eff48 is up to 28.45 in two games under Coach K.

Of course, Bogut has fooled us before with temporary upswings in his numbers. So this trend still has to meet the test of time before it can be called a legitimate renassaince for the big man.

Redd's numbers up, too

Coach K has stated he is a firm believer in assists. His reading of the numbers has led him to conclude that the top teams are those who compile the highest assists (a conclusion I want to concur with because I believe in it, but last year I remember trying to find a correlation between the two and coming up somewhat empty). Anyway, the new emphasis seems to be helping G Michael Redd.

In the last two games his productivity is up despite the fact that his signature numbers (scoring numbers that is) are about the same. He's doing it by doing something I have begged him to do since I started this blog -- he's mixing in the occasional assist and rebound. Just that small addition to his game brings his numbers from standard 2 guard numbers up toward the elite of the game. If he sticks with it, perhaps his numbers will match his max salary. Keep it up, Mike.

How's that, again?

Anyone following the Bucks in the late 80's pronounces the new coach's name according to the pronunciation we heard then (kris-TOE-we-ack). Come to find out we were wrong all along. Coach K has informed the media that the actual pronunciation is (kris-KOE-we-ack).

Sorry, big fella. That new pronunciation rolls off the tongue about as well as reinforced superglue. Thus, for the time being, I'm sticking with the 80's pronunciation. Kristo for 2!

Lowering the Opponents numbers works

Thus far, under Coach K, the Bucks Eff48 numbers have been merely adequate, yet they have won both games. The difference is the Bucks are finally making it difficult for their opponents to be productive. In those two games, only one opponent has logged an Eff48 over 30, and that was Charlotte substitute forward Walter Herrmann, who just got over it at 30.39. If you go back over my past Eff48 boxscores, you'll see that represents a big difference from the Stotts regime.

Bucks Diary Eff48 Boxscore

97

Redd......................................29.86

Bogut.....................................27.60

Bell.......................................20.57

Skinner..................................18.00

Patterson................................15.99

Williams..................................14.04

91

Herrmann.............................30.39

McInnis................................26.88

Wallace................................26.79

Carroll.................................15.99

Voskuhl................................15.36

Anderson..............................12.00

Morrison...............................10.90

Felton..................................02.08

Bucks got screwed by a bunch of Utes

Thanks to Utah, what seemed so possible after Tuesday night became extremely remote just two nights later. The Bucks will never get Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. The sooner we deal with that, the better we'll all be.

Here's how it all went wrong. The Bucks are currently tied for the third worst record in the NBA. On Tuesday they seemed poised to secure it against all comers. They quit on Terry Stotts in the most dramatic way. They packed it in for the season. It was such a definitive capitulation, in fact, that it was possible to imagine them losing nearly every remaining game. And so, all they had to do was ride the Stotts magic and close the season with a splatt, and they had some good odds of landing one of the big boys. Then Utah decided to pursue Larry Krystkowiak.

Because of that the Bucks had to fire the one man uniquely qualified to help them stumble their way to a shot at potential greatness, and hire a man who looks determined to prevent that. Thanks Utah.

Unlikely to achieve the necessary number of losses

To have anything like a decent shot at one of the two, you have to finish in the bottom four (I expound on that below). But with Krystkowiak at the helm, there is little chance the Bucks will finish anywhere near the bottom four. The players seem to genuinely like the guy (did you see the postgame hugfest?) and will probably play out the season with passion because of it. And when you combine that with the incredibly easy, home-laden schedule the team has in front of it, you have to conclude the Bucks will have an extraordinarily difficult time losing even a majority of their remaining games. Sound crazy? Just look at what's coming up.

Of the 18 remaining games, only two are absolutely unwinnable (at Houston; at Dallas), three are difficult but very doable (vs. Detroit; vs. Washington, vs. New York), three are home games against good teams who are declining rapidly (vs. LAC; vs. Orlando; vs. Indiana), one may be a default game (at Cleveland on the last day of the season); and the remaining seven are against the dregs of the NBA (3 Charlotte; 2 Boston; 2 Atlanta). If we assume no unforeseen changes of circumstance, and if we assume an acceptable-to-intense effort level for Coach K, I don’t see a hell of a lot of losses on that list. In fact, conceivably, the Bucks could clean house. If the foregoing assumptions hold, I would be shocked if they lost even a bare majority of the remaining games.

And that’s why they have no shot at Durant or Oden. The Bucks are bunched closely with about six other teams vying for that third worst spot (Memphis and Boston have the two worst spots well sewn up). Thus, any kind of winning stretch would likely bump the Bucks out of the running for third, and land them around 8th or 9th worst. And as a mathematical proposition, any team that wishes to have a reasonable shot at drafting Durant or Oden must finish in the bottom four. After that the odds of landing a top two spot become pretty remote.

Here’s a breakdown: The team with the worst record has a 46.5% chance of landing one of the two picks; the team with the second worst record has a 38.7% chance of landing one of the two; the team with the third worst record has a 28.0% chance; and the team with the fourth worst record has a 27% chance. After that, your odds fall all the way down to 18% at fifth and decline rapidly from then on. So, unless you're in the bottom four, you're shooting at rainbows anyway.

Being in the bottom four isn't that great

Being one of the bottom four teams in the NBA lottery is like being one of those guys in a craps game who bets without knowing the odds. For the bottom four teams, the lottery is actually a grossly unfair wager.

All the lottery does is it provides the better non-playoff teams a slim chance of moving up to a better pick than their record dictates. And the collective price for those individually slim chances is paid by the four worst teams. The better teams, in essence, are given a chance to steal one of the top 3 spots from their rightful owners, the teams with the three worst records. And if any of those spots is stolen, it pushes everybody back. The net effect, because of the number of non-playoff teams in the lottery drawing, is that the most likely lottery result for each of the bottom four teams is that they will fall two whole spots down from their rightful drafting spot. Let me give an example to clarify.

Let’s say Memphis finishes with the worst record. Equity says that they should have the top pick. And while it is true they have the best shot at the top spot (25%), it is actually much more likely they will end up in the 4th spot (35%)! The same holds for every team from 1 through 4. Each of them is most likely to land in a spot at least two picks behind their rightful spot. (By the 5th pick you’re most likely to stay where you are, with that likelihood increasing steadily as you go up the picking order). So, in reality, finishing in the bottom four is a bit of a fool’s gamble, most clearly so for the two worst teams (all they are getting from the lottery is a chance at losing their rightful spots in the top two).

For all of the foregoing reasons, I have quietly and begrudgingly resigned myself to the fact that, in the inimitable words of Rick Pitino, “Kevin Durant is not walking through that door. Greg Oden is not walking through that door.” I have therefore suspended “20 Spins” and retired Bango’s Big Board. Part of me still blames it all on the Utes, though.

Bucks Diary's "20 Spins" -- Volume 3

The morning after every Bucks game I take 20 spins of the ESPN Lottery Generator and post the results here up on Bango's Big Board. Since ESPN updates the weighting of their generator every day, the results provide a realistic look at where the Bucks would likely land were the lottery held on that particular day.

If the Bucks decide to start winning, they're going to take all the fun out of this. After last night's great win over the Spurs, the spin results were not promising. For the third straight time, the fifth spot was the most frequent result obtained, and this time its frequency nearly reached 50%. I also failed to land the top spot with any of the results for the first time since I began playing this game, and got the fewest number of results in the all important top two (20%).

Remember... its just an unscientific snapshot.

Great start for Coach K

I'm not convinced those were the Bucks who beat the Spurs last night. The Bucks I know don't pound the boards like men possessed. Those Bucks did (outrebounding the Spurs by 20). The Bucks I know don't play defense. Those Bucks did (holding the Spurs 3 best offensive players -- Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli -- to a collective 13-for-37). The Bucks I know sure don't have a bench. Those Bucks did (outscoring the Spurs bench 37-to-30.). And the Bucks I know like to end bad teams' long losing streaks. Those Bucks ended a good team's long winning streak (the Spurs had won 13 in a row).

All in all, a pretty impressive debut for Coach K. I know ephemeral upswings are quite common after coaching changes, but nevertheless, I am flabbergasted at the difference between the Bucks team that took the floor against Toronto on Tuesday night and the one that faced San Antonio last night. Only the names remained the same. Does this portend good things for the future? Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but I certainly like the start.

Harris wanted to replace Stotts sooner

I kind of let loose my frustration on Larry Harris on Wednesday, charging him with failure to recognize the need for a coaching change in time to salvage this season. But in retrospect that was probably unfair. If you listened to the press conference and the series of interviews he gave over the last 24 hours, and if you read between the lines and understood what he was saying, it is pretty clear he had been dissatisfied with Terry Stotts for a long time. He saw all of the shortcomings that we saw. I now believe other forces probably counseled patience and held him back. But, what needed to be done has been done and now its time to look forward.

Red knew how to say it

One of the chief complaints against Terry Stotts, and one that was echoed by Larry Harris in his public statements, was his inability to inspire the men under his command. Great coaches grab your attention and hold it. Yesterday I was reminded of that fact in a weird way.

I was sitting on my couch with the TV going in the background when one of those NBA "I love this game" commercials came on. This one was a tribute to Red Auerbach. The entire commercial consisted of an edited, 15 second clip from one of those old "Red on Roundball" segments where Red was explaining what it takes to play good defense. He didn't say anything particularly insightful, but the way he said it, and the rhetoric he used, were absolutely electrifying ("Ya gotta be SELF-SACRIFICING!"). I wasn't paying any attention to the TV when the commercial came on, but Red's words and his delivery immediately seized my attention. I rewound the commercial and watched it over at least three times. I'm not kidding. Great coaches can have that unexplainable power over you, and Red was certainly great.

Bucks Diary Eff48 BoxScore

101

Greer......................................54.39

Redd.......................................35.36

Bogut......................................30.43

Ilyasova...................................30.00

Patterson.................................27.24

Skinner....................................24.00

Bell.........................................14.76

Williams...................................-(00.06)

90

Barry..........................................28.80

Duncan.......................................23.35

Parker........................................19.20

Finley.........................................18.00

Ginobli........................................14.89

Elson..........................................14.11

Bowen.........................................03.89

Krystkowiak era dawns in Milwaukee

What we suspected has happened. Larry Brett Krystkowiak has been named the 10th head coach in Milwaukee Bucks history. He is the seventh head coach hired by the team since Senator Herb Kohl became the owner in 1985.

Some more fun facts. Krystkowiak is the second head coach in franchise history to have played for the team (Mike Dunleavy being the other). He is the fourth head coach in franchise history who has worn the crown without having any prior NBA head coaching experience (Good News: Larry Costello and Don Nelson were the first two; Bad News: Terry Porter was the third). Despite his lack of experience, the Bucks entrusted their future to him as they signed him to a long term contract last night. There will be no "interim" period.

No love for Special K?

Gerald Ford got a better reception than Krystkowiak is getting. Mike Hunt of the Journal-Sentinel basically dismissed him in his column this morning, saying he has little chance of success given his collegiate coaching background. (I'll rebut that weak, weak, bit of analysis in a minute). And BucksNation has already decided it doesn't like him. (Jsonline.com's poll asked, essentially, whether hiring Krystkowiak was the right move, and it was running 60-40 against before they took it down).

Lighten up. First of all, to answer Hunt's charge, Krystkowiak certainly can't be lumped in with the litany of former college coaches who have failed at the NBA level for one simple reason: he played in the NBA and therefore understands its game and culture. None of the college coaches listed by Hunt could say the same (Hunt goes all the way back to Jerry Tarkanian, for God's sake). Many of them failed because they could not shake their predisposition toward the dictatorial college coaching style. That doesn't work in the NBA. Krystkowiak barely coached in the college ranks (he did 2 years at Montana). He doesn't have that problem.

If anything, Krystkowiak fits the profile of the successful NBA coach. He was a middling player who overachieved by getting to the NBA and then had a productive professional career based more on grit than superstar ability. (Phil Jackson, Pat Riley, Avery Johnson, Tom Heinsohn, Don Nelson, George Karl, Larry Brown, Scott Skiles, Red Holzman). Those men were all grinders when they played in the NBA. So was Larry Krystkowiak. And his lack of experience doesn't bother me one iota. Its knowledge, demeanor, and intensity that get it done in the NBA. He has all three. We don't need anymore retreads in Milwaukee.

I think Krystkowiak will do well -- just hopefully not this year. Please don't do well this year. Take it easy, Larry, work your way into coaching... lose as many of these last 18 games as you possibly can. Your future may depend on it.

The curious timing of the Stotts firing

Larry Harris decided today to drop the guillotine blade on Terry Stotts' neck. The move was inevitable, but why now? Did Harris wake up this morning and realize Stotts was ill-suited to be a head coach? If so, then like King Lear in the storm, Harris appears to have come upon the truth of the matter way too late. To save this season, he needed to act a long, long time ago. We all saw it. Pressey saw it. The Diesel saw it. All those dudes who left 68 comments that one day saw it. My one year old nephew saw it. But Harris didn't. And thus the season is now too far gone to be saved.

So the move is too late to help the present in any useful way. But more troubling still, it may indirectly jeopardize the future.

Why? Simple. Let's say that, as expected, Larry Krystkowiak is named interim coach. Presumably, then, he has the remainder of the season to prove he is NBA timbre. What if he does? What if he gives the team the short term shot of adrenaline such regime changes generally bring? In other words, God forbid, what if the Bucks suddenly start winning? That's the worst thing that could happen. It would be like the Packers beating the Cardinals on the last day of the season and costing themselves Troy Aikman. It would be a catastrophe. They will have gained nothing but empty accomplishments. They need one of those two top picks very badly.

On the other hand, what if there is no bump? What if the Bucks continue to sag? That's good in one sense, but harmful in another. A bad debut by Krystkowiak takes the air out of the off-season for BucksNation. How can the organization then sell a better tomorrow to prospective season ticket purchasers? If the last two months are as bad as I'm praying they will be, would the Bucks let him go with just a cup of coffee? And if that happens, will they have cost themselves a man who, by all accounts, has the makings of a fine up-and-coming coaching prospect. So many questions. The bottom line is I can't see the upside in making the move now.

So why did it go down now? I have four theories.

(1) The Toronto game clearly established that the team had quit on Terry Stotts. The team exhibited no effort whatsoever on Monday night against the Raptors. On their home court, they appeared to be going through the motions, as they allowed the Raptors to come out of the gates and hit nearly 70% of their early field goal attempts. Perhaps Harris had seen enough.

Problem: While Monday's game may have been the most egregious example, for many of us, it is only one game in a long pattern of weak efforts.

(2) He waited to see what Stotts could do with Redd back in the lineup; the Toronto game convinced him there was no improvement. This theory is actually based on the interview Harris gave to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel last month in which he said he wanted to see how the team would do at reasonably full strength.

Problem: This strategy made no sense then, and it makes less sense now. The shortcomings of the Stotts administration were plain enough for everyone to see in January. He should have seen it then and acted then... if he had perhaps this season could have been saved. By waiting until now, he has gained nothing and perhaps, as I mentioned above, hurt the team long term.

(3) Does Harris think the Bucks can make a run? I hope this is not the thinking. If it is, it calls into question Larry Harris' grasp of reality. The Bucks may not be mathematically eliminated but... come on.

Problem: This theory can't be true. I have too much respect for the Lizard to believe this.

(4) The 'Andy Reid Dilemma', or, How events forced Harris' hand. Ron Wolf loved Andy Reid as a coaching prospect. When Mike Holmgren left for Seattle, Reid was an unproven commodity, so Wolf made the safe play and hired the veteran Ray Rhodes. The Eagles saw differently and took a chance. It paid off big for them. Maybe the same dynamic is at work here. Maybe Larry Harris sees what the Mequon Diesel saw back in November -- a hot, albeit unproven, coaching prospect in the form of Larry Krystkowiak sitting right on the Bucks bench.

If that is true, then events may have forced Harris' hand. His urgency to act would have been caused by the media reports that have Krystkowiak as a serious candidate for the Utah Utes head coaching position. Under this scenario, we could probably assume Harris' original plan envisioned Krystkowiak taking over fresh next year, being content to allow Stotts to finish the season out and help the team make a run at Oden or Durant. When his plan was threatened, he accelerated his timetable.

Problem: This theory will obviously be null and void if the Bucks don't name Krystkowiak head coach, or if he takes the Utah job anyway (like Flip Saunder Redux). That said, it seems the most logical explanation for the timing. We shall see.

More on this matter will be forthcoming.

Its Over!! Bucks fire Stotts

The Bucks have fired Terry Stotts effective immediately. They will name an interim coach prior to Thursday's game against the San Antonio Spurs.

To repeat, the Terry Stotts era has ended in Milwaukee. More on this breaking story in the next couple of hours, as I gather my thoughts.

For now I say only this: we don't have Terry Stotts to kick around anymore.

Bucks Diary's "20 Spins" -- Volume 2

The Bucks dropped another one last night in humiliating fashion, getting blown out by the Toronto Raptors at home. The good news is it appears by their effort level that the Bucks have finally packed it in for the season and are therefore poised to make a strong run at one of the two high impact players in this year's draft.

With that in mind, I am taking 20 spins of the ESPN Lottery Generator after every Bucks game just to give BucksNation a feel for the results. Every day ESPN weights their lottery, so the spins give a pretty legitimate view of each team's standing on each particular day. That said, and without further adieu, let's go to Bango's Big Board to see how our Milwaukee Bucks did.

Well, I still keep getting fives. On today's spin results, 5th place is once again the most frequent result. However, at the same time, I got a higher percentage of results in the top 3 than I got yesterday (45% vs. 35%). The bad news behind that is, I got fewer results in the all-important top 2 spots (25% vs. 35%).

Whatever that means, all I can say is: Keep losing Bucks! Green and growing your way up the lottery!

TJ makes the Bucks pay

If any of the Milwaukee Bucks were under the delusion that there was something meaningful left to fight for this season, someone obviously disabused them of that notion.

Not even the sight of their former teammate TJ Ford could get them motivated to compete hard at the Bradley Center last night. They came out flat and let the Raptors absolutely dominate the action early. Once the Bucks woke up in the second half, it was too late.

They also let Ford show them up all night long, as I'm sure he was aiming to do (he harbors some bitterness regarding the trade). He had a very good all-around game, providing the Raptors with a high degree of efficiency and productivity. He was what I used to call "Good TJ". If he had more nights like that when he was in a Bucks uniform, he would still be a Buck.

Ford on all cylinders early

While the Bucks came out sleeping, TJ came out smoking. He scored 12 points, dished out six assists, and even had a block in the first quarter. That action helped the Raptors build a 13 point lead at the end of one that ballooned into a 16 point lead at the half. It was pretty much 'Good Night Bucks' from there. Sure, Milwaukee had some runs at the Raptors in the second half, but they were nothing more than 'its-the-NBA-everybody-makes-a-run' runs. Toronto had little trouble fending them off.

Nobody really had an exceptional game for the Bucks. Charlie Bell was pretty good, everybody else was either okay or below par. And don't be fooled by Michael Redd's gaudy scoring numbers. He had a very poor game. His 29 points came over 44 minutes of action, and were coupled with 7 turnovers and only 3 rebounds and a 1 measly assist.

Focus on the Wheel of Fortune, Antlerheads

On the plus side, the Bucks have moved into a tie for the third worst record in the NBA, and have increased their chances of getting the top pick to 13.4%.

I'll play 20 spins of the lottery generator Tuesday morning. Look for the results in a noontime posting.

Bucks Diary Eff48 Boxscore

93
Bell.......................................................26.18
Patterson................................................23.17
Williams..................................................22.90
Bogut.....................................................20.57
Redd......................................................15.65
Skinner...................................................13.44

108
Ford........................................................39.99
Bosh........................................................35.36
Nesterovic.................................................27.13
Peterson...................................................25.14
Dixon.......................................................24.00
Calderon...................................................21.33
Bargnani...................................................07.99
Parker......................................................05.48

Photo Credit: AP/Morry Gash

Does Kobe hate white boys?

I've been thinking this since the second suspension cost him his Milwaukee appearance, but I wasn't going to level the charge until I heard someone else say it first (btw, the plural name for my approach is pronounced "pooh-SI"). I just did.

On "Jim Rome is Burning", Tom Friend, senior writer for ESPN the Magazine verbalized (and then immediately backed away from) the pattern I had noticed... every one of Kobe Bryant's oddly childish series of recent flagrant fouls have been committed against white defenders.

His latest incident involved an absolutely intentional elbow he "accidentally" whipped at the face of F Kyle Korver of the Seventy-Sixers. The other two "natural shooting motion" assaults Bryant has committed have been against the dome of G Manu Ginobli of the Spurs and the nose of G Marko Jaric of the Twolves. Is this obvious pattern a mere coincidence, or is there something else more sinister going on here?

All kidding aside, its probably the former... with a twist. Its probably a combination of coincidence and the following subconscious element.

Whenever you get someone checking you (no matter the venue or the circumstance) whom you might consider unworthy of checking you (and the three victims would fit this profile from Kobe's perspective), and said player happens to do a reasonably good job of checking you (which all three had done), it can be naturally very frustrating. Perhaps... and I realize I'm engaging in unqualified mindreading here (Mr. Terry Stotts Defender)... Kobe simply got frustrated and impishly lashed out at the cause of his frustration -- an inferior defender who happened to be white.

I just scratched Joakim Noah from my draft board

If the Bucks have the audacity to draft Joakim Noah from Florida, this site will quickly morph into "Mn Timberwolves Diary" overnight. Bango's Big Board will become Crunch's Big Board, the Green-and-Red will become the Blue-and-White, etc.... the whole nine yards. Mark my words.

Why? Did you see the ridiculously wussified dance he did after Florida won the SEC championship?! If you did, you're not asking why. If you didn't, just keep watching ESPN, and you will know why.

The only way you can do that dance and ball for any team I'm going to follow is if you're BAC is at least triple the legal limit. And I didn't see any damn Jagi Bombs in his hands or near his feet when he was doing it.

Don't Mike Bibby

Yesterday I was watching the Kings-Nuggets game on ABC. They happened to have miked Kings G Mike Bibby. No big deal... usually. Then I heard what came out of Bibby's mouth.

Either I misunderstood the context of his comments, or he is one of the most selfish basketball players in history. The first two comments ABC aired were of him calling very urgently for the ball (and one time he used a very girlish scream -- "Yeeee-ooowwww"). Fine. The third comment was him calling vigorously for a pick from Ron Artest so he could get free ("Come get me Ron. Come get me Ron. Ron, come get me!"). A little self-absorbed, but not bad. Its the fourth comment I still can't comprehend.

When he made his fourth comment, he was vigorously arguing with one of his teammates that he ought to be the one shooting the technical foul free throw. Not for the sake of the team -- for the sake of his point total!! "I gotta get to TEN!!!" he said. Then he looked up at the scoreboard, presumably searching for the spot right under his number where they list his point total. He then looked back at his teammate. "I gotta get to TEN!!!" he repeated, even more emphatically.

Now, how can you interpret that last comment as anything other than an obnoxiously selfish comment? Unless he has a weird clause in his contract, the guy was blatantly tracking his point total and was obssessed with that more so than he was with the score of the game. Do you want that attitude displayed by your point guard? Is that where you want his mind to be?

The Line of the Year thus far

On MTV's braindead reality series Maui Fever, some blond chick asked this shaggy haired Spicoli-type surfer dude "How are you doing tonight?". Without missing a beat, the surfer dude, who was as drunk as can be, replied "Don't you mean who?"

Second best Line of the Year thus far

I was watching the Wisconsin Badgers play the Illinois Fighting Illini this weekend in Madison at the tavie known as the Kollege Klub ("Where Kollegians Kongregate" their sign says). People kept bringing up how much the Badgers were hurting without F Brian Butch (for an Antlerhead reference point -- he's a slower, whiter version of Paul Mokeski). This puzzled me. So I asked my brother "When did Brian Butch become so sweet?" He thought about it. "He must be one of those guys who doesn't look sweet until he's on the bench," he replied.